Professional Documents
Culture Documents
of Internet
Piracy on the
Australian
Economy CLIENT:
Australian Content Industry Group
CONTACT:
Emilio Ferrer
Sphere Analysis
DATE:
February 2011
CLIENT:
Australian Content Industry Group
DATE:
February 2011
CONTACT:
Sphere Analysis
Emilio Ferrer
0412 251 701
eferrer@sphere.com.au
Executive Summary 2
Key Findings – Sphere Analysis Estimates 3
Scope 5
Data Pertaining to Australian Content Industries 5
Data Pertaining to Australian Internet Utilisation 6
Methodology 6
Calculation of Lost Retail and Lost Jobs as a Result of Piracy 7
Calculation of Lost Revenue to the Commonwealth Government 7
Projections 2010-2016 9
Conclusion 11
References 12
Sphere Analysis
Executive Summary
In 2010, Australia’s content industries including music, In March 2010, the independent Paris-based firm TERA
film, publishing, games and software development Consultants delivered a report to the International
encompassed a significant segment of the national Chamber of Commerce on the economic impact of
economy. The sector employs over 540,000 people and internet piracy in the European Union (EU). The report
generates economic value over $70 billion each year1. It Building a Digital Economy: The Importance of Saving
accounts for2: Jobs In the EU’s Creative Industries is one of the most
• 5 per cent of the Australian workforce. comprehensive studies of this type in recent times and
provides a good point of comparison for Australia.
• 7.3 per cent of gross domestic product.
• Over 1 per cent of Australian exports. Importantly, the TERA study focussed its data
collection on Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Spain.
With the rollout of the National Broadband Network In terms of size, these are countries with populations
(NBN) – which aims to bring fast broadband access to and economies more readily comparable to Australia
over 90 per cent of Australian homes and businesses – than the USA where many other studies of this type
the content industries are poised to play an even greater have been conducted.
role in Australia’s productivity, as they generate the
new entertainment, education and information products The TERA study estimates that in 2008 the EU had lost
that will help drive demand for greater digital capacity. 186,600 jobs as a consequence of internet piracy and
that this figure could grow as high as 1.2 million jobs by
While the potential to grow in the new NBN-enabled 2015. TERA Consultants predict that, unless remedial
economy is significant, there are also important threats action is taken, the number of jobs in EU content
to innovation and investment in online content. industries lost to copyright theft will grow by a factor of
The ARC Centre for Excellence for Creative Industries 6.5 in less than a decade.
in its paper CCi Digital Futures 2010: The Internet and Using the TERA study as a base and building in
Australia3 recently found that 27.8 per cent of Australian available data from Australian online content industries
internet users admitted to using file-sharing services our report estimates the impact of internet piracy on
like BitTorrent to access content illegally. This was up the Australian economy now and in the near future. We
from 23.6 per cent in 2008. It must be noted that as have combined the findings of the TERA study with
this survey asked respondents to admit to conducting Australian data to estimate:
an illegal activity, it is likely these figures underestimate
• Lost retail value to the Australian content industries
the real levels of internet piracy.
sector.
It is clear that as high speed broadband becomes • The impact of internet piracy on jobs.
available through the NBN to more Australian homes and • Forgone revenue to the Commonwealth
businesses, the impact of copyright theft to the content Government.
industries sector will become even more significant.
2
The Impact of Internet Piracy on the Australian Economy
3
Sphere Analysis
Scope
4
The Impact of Internet Piracy on the Australian Economy
20 million
15 million
10 million
5 million
0 million
2000 2007 2009 2010
5
Sphere Analysis
Methodology
In March 2010, the independent Paris-based firm TERA Consultants produced the report Building a Digital
Economy: The Importance of Saving Jobs In the EU’s Creative Industries17 for the International Chamber
of Commerce. The report deals with the economic impact of piracy in the EU18 and is one of the most
comprehensive studies available on this subject.
Our methodology is based on applying the findings of this study to the Australian context to estimate a base line for:
• Retail loss
• Lost jobs
• Forgone tax revenue to the Commonwealth Government.
Key metrics from the TERA study are summarised in Table 1.19
Table 1: Summary of TERA Findings United 5 Country
(2008) France Germany Italy Spain Kingdom Average
Population 64.8 m 82.3 m 58.1 m 46.5 m 62.3 m 62.8 m
Value Added (Content Industries’ GDP) € 142 b € 162 b € 93 b € 62 b € 175 b 126.8 b
Content Industries’ GDP per Capita (€) € 2,200 € 2,000 € 1,600 € 1,300 € 2,800 €2,000
Internet Users 45 m 65 m 30 m 29 m 51 m 44.1 m
Internet Penetration (%) 69% 79% 52% 63% 83% 70%
Average Internet Growth 2000-2010 43% 17% 13% 44% 23% 27%
Retail Loss17 € 1,681 m € 1,178 m € 1,434 m € 1,707 m € 1,410 m € 1,482 m
Retail Loss (as a % of CI GDP) 1.2% 0.7% 1.5% 2.8% 0.8% 1.2%
Content Industries Jobs 1.7m 2.7m 1.4m 1.2m 2.7m 1,940,000
Jobs Lost 31,400 34,000 22,400 13,200 39,000 28,000
% Job Losses 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4%
A. Value Added per Existing Job € 83,500 € 60,000 € 66,400 € 51,700 € 64,800 € 65,400
B. Value of Lost Retail per Lost Job € 53,500 € 34,600 € 64,000 € 129,300 € 36,200 € 52,900
Ratio A:B 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 1.8 1.2
The five countries from which TERA collected data have populations and economies which are much smaller
that the USA (where many other studies on internet piracy have been previously conducted). Consequently, they
represent a more appropriate point of comparison for the Australian context.
Table 2 shows a comparison of key metrics between Australia and the five EU countries in the TERA study. 20
Table 2: Comparison Five Country Australia
Australia and Average of five countries in TERA study (2008) Average (2008) (2008)20
Population 62.8 million 21.6 million
Value Added (Content Industries’ GDP) € 127 billion € 53 billion
Content Industries’ GDP per Capita € 2,000 € 2,400
Internet Users 44 million 15 million
Internet Penetration 70% 71%
Average Internet Growth 2000-2010 27% 16%
Content Industries Jobs 1.9 m Jobs 532,000 Jobs
Calculation of Lost Retail and Lost 2. The ratio between the value added per existing job
and the value of lost retail per lost job – to convert
Jobs as a Result of Internet Piracy
the value of lost retail to the number of lost jobs22.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing networks, originally
Through this approach we have estimated a base line
including Napster, Kazaa and Limewire, have rapidly
for Australia by extrapolating the average of the five EU
emerged over the last five to ten years as vehicles
countries in the TERA study.
for, among other uses, inducing and facilitating mass
infringement of copyright. In simple terms, these We have also estimated upper and lower boundaries by
networks operate by distributing software among users extrapolating the metrics from the individual countries
(‘peers’) spread around the world which facilitates which result in the highest and lowest levels of retail
the sharing of copyright-protected content stored on loss and lost jobs.
individual users’ computers. The extent of P2P file
sharing around the world is substantial and, due to the
particular characteristics of music files (i.e. relatively
Calculation of Lost Revenue to the
small in size), the music industry in particular has been Commonwealth Government
heavily impacted by this phenomenon. It is now clear,
Once lost retail and lost jobs have been estimated we
however, that with the spread of faster broadband
have also estimated the forgone tax revenue to the
services around the developed world, other forms of
Commonwealth Government. We have performed this
copyright material are being illegally shared in rapidly
task by applying:
increasing volumes – for instance, software, books,
games, television shows and films. • A 10 per cent GST rate to the value of lost retail.
• The Australian average annual income to lost jobs
In July 2010, the University of Ballarat released and the marginal income taxation rate corresponding
research on the extent of copyright infringing content to this income23.
on BitTorrent networks in Australia.21 Close to 90 per
• A 30 per cent company tax rate with a profit margin
cent of content was found to be infringing the rights of
of 7 per cent 24 on retail loss.
creators. Illegal movie and television shows made up
over 70 per cent of the traffic.
7
Sphere Analysis
Table 3 summarises our base line findings for 2010 together with lower and upper boundaries.
The estimates using the 5 country average assumes that the retail loss as a proportion of content industries’ GDP
is 1.2 per cent and that the ratio between the value added per existing job (A) and the value of lost retail per lost
job (B) is 1.2. We have then applied these metrics to Australian content industries’ GDP to estimate retail loss and
jobs lost in Australia. For the upper and lower boundaries we have used the same approach but have chosen the
metrics from the countries which deliver the highest and lowest estimates.
5 Country Average
Table 3 : Findings (2010) Lower Boundary Upper Boundary
Applied to Australia
Value of Lost Retail $900 million p.a. $500 million p.a.25 $2,000 million p.a.28
Number of Lost Jobs 8,300 Jobs 5,900 Jobs26 10,400 Jobs29
Forgone Tax Revenue to the
$190 million p.a. $120 million p.a.27 $300 million p.a. 30
Commonwealth Government
This means that our 2010 base line for Australia (used to calculate future estimates) is:
• $900 million lost retail.
• 8,300 lost jobs. 29
• $190 million in lost revenue to the Commonwealth Government.
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
8
The Impact of Internet Piracy on the Australian Economy
Projections 2010-2016
We have projected retail loss, lost jobs and forgone tax revenue to the Commonwealth Government for the period
2010-2016.
In order to estimate these metrics into the future, we have used the following methodology:
• Growth in internet users has been estimated by assuming that the NBN will increase the penetration rate to
90 per cent by 2016 32.
• We have assumed that the rollout of the NBN will allow Australian internet traffic to grow in line with global
projections33 . In June 2010, CISCO forecasted that global IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate
(CARG) of 34 per cent – this means traffic will quadruple by 2014.
• We have assumed that volume of internet piracy grows at the same rate as IP traffic 34 and that substitution
rates remain constant.
• Future job growth in the content industries has been estimated by applying the average employment growth
rate for the last four years into the future35 and then subtracting the estimated number of lost jobs.
• Population projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics forecasts 36.
Table 4 shows projections for key metrics over the period 2010-2016.
Table 4 : Australian
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Projections (2010-2016)
Population 22.6 m 22.8 m 23.0 m 23.2 m 23.5 m 23.7 m 23.9 m
Internet Users 17.0 m 17.8 m 18.5 m 19.3 m 20.0 m 20.8 m 21.5 m
Retail Loss (2010 $AU) $0.9 b $1.21 b $1.62 b $2.18 b $2.91 b $3.90 b $5.21 b
Jobs Lost 8,300 11,300 15,100 20,300 27,200 36,300 48,600
Lost Revenue to
$190 m $250 m $340 m $450 m $610 m $810 m $1,090 m
Commonwealth (2010 $AU)
Estimated Creative Jobs 542,900 549,265 554,940 559,313 562,061 562,656 560,062
Estimated Annual Net Job
5,500 6,365 5,675 4,373 2,748 596 -2,594
Growth in Content Industries
32 This is consistent with the Australian Government’s stated aim of the NBN will bring fast broadband access to over 90 per cent of
Australian homes and businesses.
33 Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast available at http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral /ns341 /ns525/ns537/ns705/
ns827/white_paper_c11481360_ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_Paper .html.
34 The TERA report provides for two scenarios – first, that digital piracy activity will grow in line with file-sharing traffic, providing
a conservative estimate of losses of 18 per cent. The second scenario, which is more applicable to the Australian environment
with the introduction and take-up of the NBN, is that digital piracy activity growth will follow consumer IP traffic trends. We have
therefore adopted the results from this scenario.
35 1.7 per cent per annum, (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Cat No 6202).
36 1.0 per cent per annum, (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Cat No 3222).
9
Sphere Analysis
$3.90 billion
$2.911 billion
$2.18 billion
$1.62 billion
$1.21 billion
$0.90 billion
5 An additional 40,300 jobs in the content industries will be lost. Significantly, we estimate that by 2016 more
jobs will be lost in the sector than created.
Figure 3: Projected Jobs In Australian Content Industries
27,200
20,300
15,100
11,300
8,300
6 The cumulative value of forgone revenue to the Commonwealth Government will be $3.7 billion.
Figure 4: Projected Lost Revenue to Commonwealth Government (2010 dollars)
$1.09 billion
$0.81 billion
$0.61 billion
$0.45 billion
$0.34 billion
$0.25 billion
$0.19 billion
10
The Impact of Internet Piracy on the Australian Economy
Conclusion
Based on the information that we have available to us, This will be caused both by growth in internet users
we estimate that in 2010 internet piracy in Australian and growth in internet traffic due to higher connection
took $900 million out of the Australian economy and speeds. From 2010 to 2016 we estimate that the
was responsible for the loss of over 8,300 jobs. The number of internet users accessing online content
consequent taxation revenue loss to the Commonwealth illegally will grow from 4.4 million to 8 million221.
Government was $190 million.
In practice, greater access to faster connections to the
This level of economic loss is significant, in particular internet will be a much more significant factor than
considering that a quarter of the Australian population additional users when it comes to the overall volume of
still has no access to the internet and one third only internet piracy.
has access to low-speed connections.
It is clear that the rollout of the NBN will contribute to
Furthermore, unless remedial action is taken, the economic greater access on both counts.
costs of internet piracy are likely to grow exponentially.
Our estimates show that by 2016: Our estimates also show that by 2016, content
industries could be losing more jobs than they create.
• The value of lost retail to content industries will grow
This would be a devastating outcome for a sector
by a factor of 5.8.
that should be experiencing strong growth with the
• The number of lost jobs will grow by a factor of 5.9. rollout of the NBN. It is also a sector that had been an
• Revenue forgone by the Commonwealth Australian economic success story as reflected by the
Government will grow by a factor of 5.7. fact that, as shown in Table 2, our content industries’
GDP per capita is higher than the average for the five
EU countries used in the TERA study.
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Sphere Analysis
References
TERA Consultants, Building a Digital Economy: The Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force
Importance of Saving Jobs In the EU’s Creative Australia, Cat No 6202. http://www.abs.gov.au/
Industries, 2010. http://www.iccwbo.org/uploadedFiles/ ausstats/ abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0.
BASCAP/Pages/Building%20a%20Digital%20
Economy%20-%20TERA(1).pdf. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian
National Accounts: National Income,
Price Waterhouse Coopers, Making the Intangible Expenditure and Product, Cat No 5206.
Tangible – The Economic Contribution of http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.
Australia’s Copyright Industries, 2009. nsf/Lookup/5206.0Main+Features1Jun%20
http://www.copyright.org.au/admin/cms-acc1/_images/ 2006?OpenDocument.
13730910374c97f 6ba497bf.pdf.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Population
ARC Centre for Excellence for Creative Industries, Projections, Australia, Cat No 3222.
CCi Digital Futures 2010: The Internet and http://www.abs.gov.au /AUSSTAT S/abs@.nsf/
Australia, 2010. http://www.cci.edu.au/publications/ Lookup/3222.0Explanatory%20Notes12004%20to%20
digital-futures-2010. 2101?OpenDocument.
Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast, 2010. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Average Weekly
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral /ns341/ Earnings, Australia, Cat No 6302. http://www.abs.
ns525/ ns537/ns705 /ns827/white_paper_c11-481360_ gov.au /ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0.
ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_ Paper.html.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Business Operations
Internet World Stats, User and Population Statistics, and Industry Performance, Australia, Cat No 8142.
2010. http://www.internetworldstats.com/. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/
Lookup/8142.0Explanatory%20Notes12000-1?
ICSL, Investigation into the extent of infringing OpenDocument.
content on BitTorrent networks, 2010,
http://www.afact.org.au/research/bt_report_final.pdf.
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